Estimados/as Académicos/as,

Les extendemos la invitación al seminario que organiza el Departamento de Economía, en el que se presentará el trabajo titulado "Biased expectations, memory and overconfidence in higher education".

Expone: Mariana Carrera, Profesora Asociada, Universidad Estatal de Montana.

Coautores: Andrew J. Hill y Trevor Vogel.

Abstract: Nine out of ten U.S. college students expect to graduate within four years, yet most attend institutions where fewer than half do. Understanding the sources of these overoptimistic expectations matters for evaluating policies that expand enrollment at broad-access public universities. Using panel data and comparing self-predictions to predictions for students with similar past performance, we decompose misprediction about near-term and long-term outcomes into general misprediction, overconfidence, and memory bias. Students believe their chances of success exceed those of similarly-performing peers, and biased memory of past actions explains a substantial portion of this overconfidence.

El formato será presencial en la sala P-303.

Saludos cordiales,

Dirección de Investigación