Estimados Académicos y Académicas FEN,

Les extendemos la invitación al seminario que organiza el Departamento de Economía, en el que se presentará el trabajo titulado "Lumpy Forecasts".

Expone: Javier Turen, Profesor Asistente, Intituto de Economía, Universidad Católica.

Coautor: Isaac Baley (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Abstract: We document that professional forecasters adjust inflation forecasts in a lumpy way— forecasts are changed infrequently, and when adjusted, they are revised by a large amount. As the forecasting horizon shrinks, the frequency of revisions, the size of revisions, and forecast errors decrease. Using a fixed-event forecasting framework, we assess the role of the consensus forecast and private information in shaping forecast revisions, both at the extensive and the intensive margins. A model of Bayesian belief formation with fixed revision costs and strategic concerns (i) delivers lumpy forecasts consistent with the survey evidence, (ii) rationalizes forecast efficiency tests without introducing behavioral biases, and (iii) generates the observed response to increases in inflation volatility.

Versión preliminar.

El formato será presencial y el seminario se desarrollará en la Sala P-204.

Saludos cordiales,

Dirección de Investigación